Chapter 1

Figures converted from Indonesian rupiah at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.

Bottom line

CBDK sells serviced land inside one 700-hectare estate west of Jakarta, collects the money up front, and books it as revenue years later on handover. That mechanism produced $82 million of FY2025 profit to shareholders on a 66% gross margin. It also means FY2025 order intake of $26 million — down 80% year on year in the company's own operational table — has not yet touched reported earnings.

One estate, one controlling owner

PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk develops the central business district of PIK 2, a coastal township in Tangerang, Banten, roughly 25 km west of central Jakarta. Its inventory is not a portfolio of projects across a country; it is 702 hectares of land reserves in one place, sold plot by plot and building by building across 16 products at the end of 2025 [1]. Everything in the investment case traces back to that single land position and to who controls it.

Control is concentrated to an unusual degree. PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk (PANI) held 87.27% of the shares at the end of 2025, up from 51.00% a year earlier as the two founding vehicles — PT Agung Sedayu and PT Tunas Mekar Jaya — folded their stakes into the listed parent and were left with 1.37% each. The public holds exactly 10.00%, the IDX minimum. No director or commissioner owns shares directly; the annual report names President Commissioner Richard Halim Kusuma as the ultimate beneficial owner [2].

The company listed on 13 January 2025 at $0.252 per share, with 5,668,944,500 shares outstanding and a market capitalisation of $1,427 million on the day [3]. Three days later it spent IPO proceeds acquiring 99.90% of PT Industri Pameran Nusantara, operator of the NICE convention centre, and in March 2025 added PT Citra Kirana Bisnis Distrik, developer of the Hilton PIK2 hotel due to open in 2027 [4].

Sources: market cap derived from 5,668,944,500 shares [5] at the $0.211 close of 23 July 2026 (market data, as reported); revenue and profit from the FY2025 Financial Highlights [6]; net cash derived from cash of $187m [7] less bank loans of $15m [8].

Cash first, revenue years later

The accounting mechanism matters more here than at most developers, and the company states it plainly: because most sales are made on an indent (pre-order) basis, CBDK recognises almost no trade receivables. Money received before the performance obligation is fulfilled sits on the liability side as advances from customers, and becomes revenue only when control of the unit or plot passes to the buyer [9].

That pool is the largest single item on the balance sheet after land. Advances from customers stood at $573 million at 31 December 2025 ($505m current plus $68m non-current), against $616 million a year earlier and $565 million at 1 January 2024 [10]. It is 42% of the $1,355 million balance sheet and nearly four times FY2025 revenue.

Sources: advances from customers at 1 Jan 2024, 31 Dec 2024 and 31 Dec 2025 [11]; net revenues from the FY2025 Financial Highlights [12].

Two features of that chart carry the business model. First, the pool is very large relative to the income statement, so reported revenue in any year is mostly a release of cash collected in earlier years rather than a measure of current selling. Second, 2025 is the first year the pool shrank — by $23 million at the 2025 rate — meaning recognition ran ahead of fresh collections for the first time in the reported record.

The land behind it is carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value. Inventories totalled $829 million at end-2025 ($415m current, $415m non-current) [13], 61% of assets, spread across the 702-hectare reserve [14]. Historic-cost land meeting central-business-district pricing is the whole of the margin story: cost of revenues was $51 million against $150 million of sales in FY2025 [15].

Three years of reported numbers

On the reported line, the trajectory is uninterrupted improvement. Revenue rose from $127 million in 2023 to $150 million in 2025; gross margin widened from 50.5% to 66.1%; profit attributable to owners of the parent more than doubled, from $38 million to $82 million; earnings per share went from $0.0074 to $0.0145 [16] [17].

Source: FY2025 Annual Report, Financial Highlights and Financial Ratios [18] [19].

The first quarter of 2026 extended the pattern sharply. Net revenue of $45 million was 74% above the $26 million of Q1 2025, and gross profit of $37 million implies an 82.9% gross margin [20]. Profit attributable to owners of the parent was $32 million against $8 million a year earlier [21].

Two details inside that quarter are worth carrying forward. The real-estate segment earned $39 million of gross profit on $44 million of revenue — an 88% margin — while the convention and exhibition segment, the recurring-income pivot management describes, produced $0.3 million of revenue against $2.4 million of cost, a gross loss of $2.0 million [22]. And two buyers accounted for $31 million, or 70% of quarterly revenue: PT Global Jet Express at $16 million and PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk at $15 million, against nil in the comparative quarter [23]. For FY2025 as a whole, the audited note states no single customer exceeded 10% of consolidated revenue [24]. Quarterly earnings at this company are lumpy because a single corporate land purchase can be most of a quarter.

Order intake fell while profit rose

The forward-looking series moves the other way. The FY2025 annual report's operational highlights table, stated consistently in rupiah across three years, shows total marketing sales of $146 million in 2023, $131 million in 2024 and $26 million in 2025 — a 79.7% decline in the latest year. Commercial land plots, the largest line, fell from $92 million to $21 million; commercial products from $19 million to $5 million; residential from $20 million to $0.2 million [25].

Sources: marketing sales by segment, FY2025 Operational Highlights [26]; net revenues, FY2025 Financial Highlights [27].

The company's own target moved with it, and the two annual reports do not reconcile. Writing in the FY2024 report, management set a 2025 pre-sales target of $126 million, to be supported by four subsidiaries [28]. The FY2025 report presents the 2025 target as $30 million and the outcome as $26 million, or 84.67% of target [29]. Neither report reconciles the roughly 75% reduction between the two filings: the FY2025 report describes its $30 million target as "a conservative yet realistic approach to maintain growth sustainability amid global economic uncertainty", without reference to the $126 million published a year earlier [30]. The 2026 target is $34 million, 30.9% above the 2025 outcome and around a quarter of what 2024 actually delivered [31].

The strongest fact against reading this as demand failure is the FY2024 base itself. The FY2024 report describes 2024 pre-sales of $131 million, of which $92 million was commercial land plots, up 78% from $54 million in 2023 [32]. A book of that size, sold indent and recognised on handover, funds several years of revenue on its own — which is precisely what the $573 million advances pool represents. Weak intake in 2025 therefore does not have to show up in 2026 or 2027 earnings, and Q1 2026 shows it has not. What it does is set the pace at which the pool empties.

What the shares have done

The reception at listing was enthusiastic and did not last. The shares opened at $0.252, touched $0.710 within the first quarter — 2.8 times the offer price — and closed 2025 at $0.525, valuing the company at $2,976 million [33]. They then fell through 2026 to $0.211 on 23 July, roughly 57% below the 2025 close and 7% below the $1,427 million capitalisation at which the company listed [34]. Reported earnings accelerated the whole way down.

Sources: IPO price and 2025 quarterly closes, FY2025 Share Highlights and Corporate Actions [35] [36]; 2026 quarter-end and latest closes from market data, as reported.

At $0.211 the arithmetic is compact. Market capitalisation is $1,194 million. Trailing twelve-month profit to the parent — FY2025 less Q1 2025 plus Q1 2026 — is $107 million, putting the shares on about 12 times trailing earnings. Equity attributable to owners of the parent was $542 million at end-2025 [37], so the market pays roughly 2.4 times book — book that carries the land at historic cost. Net cash of $172 million is 13% of the market value. The dividend distributed in 2025 was $0.0003 per share, $1.7 million in total, or 3.06% of FY2024 profit [38].

Balance-sheet risk is low by the standards of Indonesian property. Interest-bearing bank debt was $15 million at end-2025 against $187 million of cash [39] [40]. The claim ahead of shareholders is not a lender; it is the $573 million owed to buyers in the form of units and plots not yet delivered.

What this report examines

Setting the spine for what follows: the question this report exists to answer is whether CBDK's reported profits — released from a $573 million pool of customer money collected in earlier years against land carried at historic cost — can be replenished by new sales at anything like the rate they are being consumed, and what price that answer supports after the shares gave back everything they gained since listing.

The evidence so far points both ways, and honestly so. In favour of the business: 66% gross margins in FY2025 rising to 83% in Q1 2026, net cash, minimal debt, a land position in one of the few large master-planned districts within reach of Jakarta, and a controlling owner with the balance sheet to keep building. Against it: order intake down 80% in a year, a 2025 target cut roughly 75% between two consecutive annual reports without explanation, a 10% free float, a convention business currently loss-making at the gross line, and 70% of the most recent quarter's revenue from two corporate buyers.

What would settle it is observable and dated. If marketing sales in 2026 land near the $34 million target while the advances pool keeps falling, the pool is being drawn down rather than refilled, and the current earnings run-rate is temporary. If intake instead returns toward the $130 million range that 2023 and 2024 delivered, the 2025 figure was a pause. The 2026 full-year operational highlights table, published in the FY2026 annual report and previewed in quarterly disclosure, is where that reads out.

One limitation to state plainly: web research was unavailable for this run, so nothing here rests on press coverage, broker estimates, or the regulatory debate around the PIK 2 area. Every figure above comes from CBDK's own filings and market price data.